With less than two weeks to go before the start of early voting in the Texas primary runoff elections, the Republican Senate contest remains tight. A new poll from the University of Houston's Hobby School of Public Affairs shows Texas Attorney General Ken Paxton in a statistical dead heat with U.S. Sen. John Cornyn.
The survey shows Paxton leading Cornyn 48% to 45% among likely voters in the GOP primary runoff, with 7% undecided. The margin of error in the poll is just under 3%.
"Paxton retains an overwhelming majority of his support from March, as does Cornyn, with Wesley Hunt voters though leaning towards Paxton, 54% to 35%," said Mark Jones, a political science fellow at Rice University's Baker Institute for Public Policy and coauthor of the survey.
Breaking down support for Paxton vs. support for Cornyn
The poll shows Paxton leading Cornyn across most demographic categories, with a few notable exceptions. The widest division comes in terms of education. Likely Republican primary voters with a four-year college degree prefer Cornyn over Paxton by 10 percentage points, while those without a four-year degree favor Paxton over Cornyn by 17 points.
Cornyn ties with Paxton among white voters at 47% each, with 6% unsure. Cornyn leads Paxton by 49% to 44% among voters aged 18 to 34, with 7% unsure. Among self-defined independents voting in the GOP primary, Cornyn leads Paxton 47% to 43%, with 10% unsure.
On the issues, Paxton leads among voters whose chief concerns are immigration and border security, election integrity and Second Amendment rights. Cornyn leads among voters whose top concerns are inflation and the cost of living, jobs and the economy. The two are tied among voters whose top concern is violent crime.
Fifty percent of likely GOP primary voters have a favorable opinion of Paxton compared to 43% with an unfavorable opinion. Forty-seven percent say they have a favorable opinion of Cornyn, compared to 49% with an unfavorable opinion. Jones said those divisions could make it challenging for the party to unify behind the winner of the primary runoff in time for the November general election.
"At the end of the day," Jones said, "they may dislike [the Democratic nominee, state Rep.] James Talarico more than Cornyn or Paxton, but there is the potential that Republicans could lose a portion of that vote come November if those Republican voters either stay home, cast a protest vote for Libertarian Ted Brown, or in a few cases, actually vote for James Talarico against the Republican nominee."
Other Republican primary runoff contests
The survey also finds that state Sen. Mayes Middleton is leading U.S. Rep. Chip Roy in the state attorney general's race by 48% to 39%, with 13% unsure of how they would vote. Voters who cast ballots in the first round of the primary for state Sen. Joan Huffman are evenly split between Middleton and Roy for the runoff, while those who voted for Aaron Reitz support Middleton over Roy by 54% to 38%.
Jones said Middleton has the advantage over Roy in terms of significantly higher favorable over unfavorable ratings as well as having a significantly larger campaign war chest. Middleton, whose non-legislative job is running his family's independent oil and gas firm, is largely self-financed. But Jones said Roy retains a path to the nomination.
"If there’s one liability that Middleton has, it's that more than one of four Republican primary voters simply don’t know enough about it to have an opinion," Jones said. "And if Chip Roy can color that opinion in a negative way, that could cost Middleton votes and allow Chip Roy to close the gap that presently separates him from the Texas state senator."
Meanwhile, incumbent Texas Railroad Commissioner Jim Wright leads Republican activist Bo French by 35% to 28%, but 37% of likely primary voters say they are still unsure which candidate they will support.
"Among those Republican primary voters who do have an opinion in this race," Jones said, "Wright holds a 28-percentage point advantage among those who intend to vote for John Cornyn in the U.S. Senate race, while French leads right by 13 percentage points among those who intend to vote for Ken Paxton."
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