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Paxton worries about drop in polling numbers after midterm GOP convention in leaked audio

Lorianne Willett / KUT News

In leaked audio obtained by The New York Times, Texas Attorney General and Republican U.S. Senate candidate Ken Paxton said the midterm Republican Convention in Dallas, featuring President Donald Trump, hurt Paxton and other GOP candidates' poll numbers.

The audio, which the Times reported was recorded at a private fundraiser in Washington, D.C., has since been reposted by a Democratic social media feed.

"So, to be honest with you," Paxton said on the audio, "when we did that convention, it dropped our numbers. Everybody's numbers dropped. Right now? Yeah, it's not good. I wish there was something we could do to turn that around, but there's obviously nothing."

The midterm Republican convention earlier this month was designed in large part to shore up GOP candidates in advance of November's election. It was the first such midterm political convention in modern times. Trump, whose polling numbers are underwater in Texas, was the keynote speaker.

The Times did not share the identity of the person who passed on the audio but said its veracity had been confirmed by three other people with knowledge of the event.

Nick Maddux, a senior advisor to Paxton, released a statement condemning the Times story without denying the speaker was Paxton.

"This is more manipulated nonsense from the New York Times to create a story that doesn't exist," Maddux said. "Our latest poll from the last week has Ken Paxton leading by three points, and every serious pollster will tell you that our numbers have improved since early September. Ken Paxton is going to win this race, and he looks forward to closing strong alongside President Trump including when he comes to Texas this week."

Most polling since mid-summer shows state Rep. James Talarico, Paxton's Democratic opponent, either statistically tied with Paxton or in a slight lead.

Talarico, who did not immediately comment on the leaked audio, addressed a forum of the U.S. Hispanic Business Council on Wednesday, following Paxton'sappearance before the council on Monday.

Paxton is slated to attend President Trump's visit to the Peterbilt Motors factory in Denton on Thursday afternoon.

"It strikes me that this also gets to the core of how useful and effective Donald Trump is as an ally for Republicans," Brandon Rottinghaus, political science professor at the University of Houston, said. "Paxton implies that it fell flat. This does make sense because Trump spent at least two days talking about how effective Paxton was."

If Paxton and other Republican candidates' polling numbers are seen to have declined after the convention, Rottinghaus said, it could make future such midterm conventions less likely.

Rottinghaus said the leaked audio could come back to hurt Paxton.

"There's a hint of ingratitude in this from Ken Paxton," Rottinghaus said. "The only way he is able to compete in this race is because ofRepublican super PAC money flowing to Texas. If he looks like he's biting the hand that feeds him, it might be that the money dries up and goes instead to Alaska or Iowa or Ohio."

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Copyright 2026 Texas Public Radio

Andrew Schneider | Houston Public Media
Andrew Schneider | Houston Public Media